goodmoney · 半导体
graph TD subgraph L1["L1 · 计算核心层"] GPU["GPU/ASIC
算力芯片"]; HBM["HBM
高带宽内存"]; Interposer["硅中介层
(Interposer)"]; ABF_Sub["ABF载板
(FC-BGA基板)"] end subgraph L2["L2 · 板卡集成层"] HighEnd_PCB["高阶PCB
(20-30层主板)"]; Power_Supply["电源系统
(DrMOS/Multiphase)"]; Passives["被动元件
(MLCC/电感)"]; Connectors["高速连接器
(NVLink/PCIe)"] end subgraph L3["L3 · 服务器系统层"] Cabinet["服务器机柜"]; Optical_Module["高速光模块
(800G/1.6T)"]; Fiber["光纤/MPO连接器"]; Liquid_Cooling["液冷散热系统"]; SST["固态变压器
(SST/800V DC)"]; Switch_Chip["交换机芯片
(DPU/Spectrum)"]; BBU["BBU备电
(锂电池单元)"] end subgraph L4["L4 · 核心上游材料层"] Wafer["硅片
(12寸高纯)"]; ABF_Film["ABF膜"]; CCL["高阶CCL
(覆铜板)"]; CuFoil["铜箔"]; T_Glass["T-Glass"]; Resin["特种树脂"]; Precursor["High-K前驱体
(ZrO2/HfO2)"]; EMC["环氧塑封料"]; Silica["硅微粉
(EMC填料)"]; InP["磷化铟衬底
(InP)"]; Optical_Chip["光芯片
(EML/DML/硅光)"]; Photoresist["光刻胶
(EUV/ArF/KrF)"]; ElecGas["电子特气
(刻蚀/沉积用)"] end subgraph L5["L5 · 半导体设备层"] Lithography["光刻机
(DUV/EUV)"]; Etcher["刻蚀机
(ICP/CCP)"]; Deposition["薄膜沉积
(CVD/PVD/ALD)"]; Metrology["检测量测
(OCD/SEM)"]; IonImplant["离子注入
(高能/低能)"]; ICTest["IC测试
(SLT/ATE/FT)"] end GPU ---|CoWoS封装| Interposer; HBM ---|2.5D堆叠| Interposer; Interposer ---|FC-BGA倒装| ABF_Sub ABF_Sub -->|SMT贴装| HighEnd_PCB; GPU -->|供电| Power_Supply; GPU -->|滤波/储能| Passives; HighEnd_PCB -->|背板互联| Connectors HighEnd_PCB -->|系统集成| Cabinet; Connectors -->|电光转换| Optical_Module; Optical_Module -->|光传输| Fiber; Cabinet -->|液冷散热| Liquid_Cooling; Cabinet -->|800V HVDC| SST; Cabinet -->|备电系统| BBU Optical_Module -->|数据交换| Switch_Chip; Cabinet -->|网络互联| Switch_Chip ABF_Film -.->|绝缘层| ABF_Sub; CCL -.->|基材| HighEnd_PCB; CuFoil -.->|导电层| CCL; T_Glass -.->|增强骨架| CCL; Resin -.->|绝缘基体| CCL; Precursor -.->|DRAM电容| HBM; EMC -.->|封装保护| HBM; Silica -.->|填料| EMC; InP -.->|光模块光源| Optical_Module Optical_Chip -.->|核心器件| Optical_Module CuFoil -.->|导电层| CCL; Wafer -.->|衬底| Interposer; Photoresist -.->|光刻图形| Lithography; ElecGas -.->|刻蚀/沉积| Etcher Lithography -.->|图形转移| GPU; Etcher -.->|结构加工| GPU; Deposition -.->|薄膜制备| GPU; Etcher -.->|硅通孔| HBM GPU -->|SLT/FT测试| ICTest; ICTest -->|成品交付| Cabinet
事件共识矩阵 · 投资信号量化
低确定性
高确定性
Probability (概率) →
低赔率
高赔率
← Payoff (赔率) →
立即(<1m)近期(1-3m)中期(3-12m)●大小 = BOM占比
Nvidia AI 计算平台路线图
GB200
NVL72
2025H2
风冷为主
800G光模块
GB300
NVL72
2026H1
液冷标配+BBU
1.6T光模块导入
Vera Rubin
NVL144?
2026H2
算力x2
CPO硅光导入
Next Gen
2027
玻璃基板
全液冷
数据来源:Nvidia GTC · SemiAnalysis · J.P. Morgan